The next several weeks stack up as one of the most consequential stretches on the tech calendar in years, and nearly every marquee item is a referendum on the same question: is the AI infrastructure boom still accelerating, or quietly peaking? From the sole maker of the machines that print advanced chips, to the world’s largest foundry, to Big Tech’s capex disclosures, to a data-center IPO, the reports and events below will collectively answer more about the state of the AI trade than any single earnings season has in a while. Here are the ten that matter most, in calendar order.
1. ASML Earnings — July 15
The season opens with arguably its highest-stakes single report. ASML is the only company in the world that makes the extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines required to print sub-5nm AI chips, which makes its order book a leading indicator for the entire semiconductor cycle. Consensus calls for roughly $7.94 in EPS on about $10.27 billion in revenue, but the headline numbers are largely locked in, the real signal is net bookings and whether management raises full-year guidance a third time. The stock has surged more than 60% year to date yet pulled back about 11% in early July on “peak AI capex” fears, and options are pricing an 8%-plus post-earnings swing, double its usual move. Watch three things: whether Q2 bookings sustain recent momentum, China guidance amid export-control friction, and commentary on High-NA EUV adoption. A strong booking print signals the AI cycle is still early; any shortfall feeds the plateau narrative and could set the tone for everything that follows.
2. TSMC Earnings — July 16
One day after ASML, the world’s dominant contract chipmaker reports, and together the two are the clearest read on global chip demand available. TSMC guided Q2 revenue to $39-40.2 billion (roughly 33% year-over-year growth) with gross margin of 65.5-67.5%, and it has beaten consensus in each of the last four quarters. Again, the guidance matters more than the print. TSMC already lifted its full-year 2026 growth outlook above 30% on the Q1 call, and Citi and others expect another upward revision driven by “extremely robust” AI demand and 5-10% price increases now rolling across its advanced nodes. Investors will focus on CoWoS advanced-packaging capacity (the bottleneck for AI accelerators), N2 (2nm) ramp progress, and any capex revision. If TSMC raises guidance again, it’s an explicit green light that the AI capex cycle has more runway.
3. Csquare IPO — July 16 (Expected)
The AI trade meets the IPO window. Csquare, a Brookfield-backed North American data-center operator, is expected to list on the NYSE under ticker CSQR, offering 50 million shares at $23-27 to raise roughly $1.25 billion at a valuation near $1.55 billion. It runs 64 carrier-neutral colocation sites across 21 metros with about 389 megawatts of sellable power, serving over 1,700 customers, and grew revenue 16% year over year last quarter to $270.5 million, though it remains unprofitable, posting a net loss of roughly $151 million over the trailing twelve months. The bull case is straightforward exposure to AI-ready data-center demand; the bear case is Brookfield’s ~67% voting control, heavy capital intensity, and a colocation model distinct from GPU-owning peers like CoreWeave. Its debut will test whether public-market appetite for AI infrastructure names still runs hot after a record IPO stretch.
4. Netflix Earnings — July 16
Amid the semiconductor drama, Netflix offers a read on the consumer and streaming side of tech. As one of the first megacap platforms to report each season, its subscriber trajectory, ad-tier momentum, and pricing power serve as an early gauge of discretionary consumer spending and the health of the streaming model at a moment when every media and entertainment name is being re-rated around AI-driven content costs and engagement. Its guidance often moves the broader media complex.
5. Samsung Galaxy Unpacked — July 22
Samsung’s summer Unpacked in London, themed “A New Shape Unfolds,” is set to reveal a reshaped foldable lineup: an extra-wide, passport-style Galaxy Z Fold 8 alongside a Fold 8 Ultra and Flip 8, plus new Galaxy Watches and possibly Android XR smart glasses developed with Google. The wider form factor is a direct pre-emptive strike against Apple’s first foldable iPhone, expected in September. Beyond hardware, the subtext is two-fold: how much Galaxy AI Samsung layers on to differentiate, and how the deepening memory shortage is pushing foldable prices higher, with leaks pointing to a $2,099 starting price on the Fold 8 Ultra. It’s the opening move in a three-way foldable race between Samsung, Google, and Apple.
6. Alphabet and IBM Earnings — July 22
A heavyweight double-header. Alphabet is a top-tier AI capex discloser, its cloud growth, capital-spending guidance, and any commentary on AI-driven search monetization will move sentiment across the entire hyperscaler complex, especially given how much of 2026’s market narrative hinges on whether that spending converts to revenue. IBM’s report carries unusual weight this quarter: it comes just over a week after the company’s 25% single-day collapse on a preliminary Q2 warning, when CEO Arvind Krishna flagged a customer capex shift toward servers and memory and “rapidly-evolving cybersecurity concerns.” This is the full, finalized result, and investors will scrutinize whether the enterprise-spending freeze Krishna described is a one-quarter timing issue or a structural pattern, and how much of the shortfall was execution versus demand.
7. Intel Earnings — July 23
Intel remains the most closely watched turnaround story in semiconductors. Its foundry ambitions, progress on advanced nodes, and ability to claw back relevance against TSMC and Nvidia in the AI era make each report a referendum on whether America’s onetime chip champion can execute its comeback. Coming a week after TSMC’s likely-strong results, Intel’s numbers will sharpen the contrast between the industry’s leader and its most prominent challenger, and its guidance will speak to whether the AI buildout lifts all chipmakers or concentrates gains at the top.
8. Microsoft, Apple, and Samsung Electronics Earnings — July 30
The single biggest earnings day of the stretch. Microsoft is the bellwether for enterprise AI adoption and Azure growth, and its capex guidance is among the most market-moving numbers in tech, given the scrutiny on whether hyperscaler spending is sustainable. Apple reports into a delicate moment: soft AI positioning, the long-delayed Siri overhaul now shipping in iOS 27, and margin pressure from the memory shortage, all while it weighs on-device AI options. Samsung Electronics, reporting the same day, is a linchpin of the memory market, its commentary on DRAM and NAND pricing speaks directly to the shortage rippling through the entire device industry. Reddit and Roblox round out a day thick with consumer-platform signals.
9. Black Hat USA and DEF CON — August 1-9
Back-to-back in Las Vegas, the two premier security conferences land at a moment of maximum relevance for the field. With frontier AI models now capable of finding and exploiting vulnerabilities at machine speed, and the federal government having just launched its “Gold Eagle” AI cyber clearinghouse, the research unveiled at Black Hat and DEF CON will shape the year’s threat narrative. Expect major disclosures on AI-assisted attacks, model vulnerabilities, and critical-infrastructure exposure, precisely the concerns that recently sent cybersecurity stocks rallying. For a sector being re-rated as the non-discretionary line item in enterprise IT budgets, these two weeks set the agenda.
10. AMD Earnings — August 4
AMD closes out the essential list as the most credible challenger to Nvidia in AI accelerators. Its data-center GPU traction, MI-series roadmap, and guidance will indicate whether the AI compute market is broadening beyond a single dominant supplier or remaining concentrated. In a season defined by testing the AI trade’s ceiling, AMD is the clearest gauge of whether the second-place contender is closing the gap, and whether hyperscalers are genuinely diversifying their chip suppliers or simply paying whatever Nvidia charges.
The Through-Line
Read together, this calendar is one long stress test of a single thesis. ASML and TSMC test whether the chips underpinning AI are still in short supply or catching up to demand. Csquare tests whether investors will keep funding the physical buildout. Microsoft, Alphabet, and AMD test whether the capex is converting into revenue and broadening across suppliers. Apple and Samsung test how the memory shortage and on-device AI reshape the device layer. And Black Hat plus the IBM aftermath test whether security spending holds as the one budget nobody cuts. By mid-August, the “is AI peaking or accelerating” debate that has whipsawed the semiconductor index all summer should have far more evidence behind it than it does today. The dates below aren’t just a schedule, they’re the calendar on which the market’s biggest open question gets answered.